With tariffs paused, California’s avocado future remains hazy

Rancho Vasquez farms in Azusa, California.

Damien Vasquez has been harvesting avocados for as long as he can remember, and he welcomes tariffs on Mexican avocados. 

His family-owned farm, Rancho Vasquez — tucked away in the Azusa, California foothills — has supplied avocados to local restaurants and organic grocery stores for nearly 70 years. Vasquez said his 3,700-tree avocado farm has to compete with Mexican labor and prices, which drives away buyers.

“When I hear [Trump] imposing taxes or tariffs on imports, it only makes sense to me,” Vasquez said. “Consumers say, ‘Oh, now avocados are going to cost more.’ And it’s like, honestly, they should cost more. It costs so much to grow them.” 

President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Mexico have been sporadic. Twenty-five percent tariffs went into effect on Feb. 1 and were suspended two days later after widespread criticism. March brought deja vu — tariffs were similarly implemented and removed from products protected by the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), a free trade agreement negotiated during Trump’s first term. 

Avocados fall under the agreement, but Trump’s unpredictable tariffs loom over California business owners and farmers. Mexico supplies about 90% of avocado imports to the United States, followed by Peru with six percent. 

The proposed tariffs create a paradox. Some farmers like Vasquez equate tariffs with domestic self-reliance, but food experts say they could also result in overstretched American farmers, a decline in avocado supplies and higher prices.

Vasquez wears many hats on the farm. He picks avocados by hand at the beginning of the week, boxes and separates them mid-week, and runs the on-farm store from Friday to Sunday. He said smaller ranches like his might not be able to accommodate a spike in demand at their current acreages, but over time, tariffs could jumpstart a renaissance for the U.S. avocado industry.

“A strain on the market is only for so long, because then people see opportunity,” Vasquez said. “The only thing is, people have to feel safe. [Trump] has to say, ‘No, we’re not just implementing these tariffs for six months as a power play.’”

The White House fact sheet on Trump’s Mexico tariffs largely portrayed them as a bargaining chip to mitigate immigration and drug trafficking, rather than a solution for long-term economic growth. 

“In his first term, President Trump successfully used threats of tariffs on Mexico to help secure our border,” the sheet said.

Some farmers disagree with Vasquez. Also during Trump’s first term, The California Farm Bureau Federation championed the removal of tariffs and the passing of the USMCA. 

“With Canada and Mexico agreeing to lift their retaliatory tariffs on many California agricultural products, it will provide a boost in exports and have a ripple effect throughout the farm and rural economy,” CFBF President Jamie Johansson said in a press release.

Historically, tariffs have yielded mixed results for U.S. farmers, with the impacts varying by state, farm size and crop. In 2018, retaliatory tariffs on China resulted in a loss of $27 billion in U.S. agricultural exports, per a study by the United States Department of Agriculture on the economic impact of tariffs. 

Darin Detwiler, a food policy and food safety expert, recently gave a lecture to a graduate class at Northeastern University called “Beyond the Avocado,” exploring the hidden costs of Trump’s tariff threats.

He said tariffs may appear to strengthen domestic self-sufficiency, but a production surge of avocados or healthy substitutes like almonds or lettuce, both water-intensive crops, can actually put unintended strain on the environment. 

“In regions already experiencing water stress or soil degradation, this kind of reactive over-farming can undermine long-term sustainability goals,” Detwiler said. 

Detwiler said high demand — U.S. avocado demand has increased 600% since 1998 — can lead to a rise in substitutes, and eventually what he calls “food fraud.”

“Unscrupulous actors are incentivized to cut corners,” Detwiler said. “Diluting products, mislabeling origins, or outright substituting ingredients to capitalize on consumer confusion and high prices.”

A good example is the popularity surge of avocado oil. A 2023 UC Davis study found that 70% of private label avocado oils were rancid or mixed with lower-quality oils. 

Detwiler said consumers, primarily low-income households, would experience the brunt of the tax. Large grocery store and restaurant chains carrying Mexican avocados will likely have to raise prices. 

Chipotle Mexican Grill sources half of its avocados from Mexico. Although guacamole is already an extra $2.65 at some Southern California locations, CEO Scott Boatwright said in an NBC News interview that the company will initially “absorb” higher costs.

Vasquez said middlemen, like packaging companies, will also use tariff confusion to inflate prices, regardless of where the avocados were sourced.

“[The packaging houses] were saying, ‘Oh, this year is going to be tough,’ and we’re going to have to pay more,” Vasquez said. “They were still buying avocados for the same price, but they were kind of using it in their favor.”

Vasquez said he has not had to raise prices, but their avocados are typically pricier than Mexican avocados because of their quality. He provided an analogy: consumers could go to a nice Mexican restaurant and pay $3 for tacos, or go to Taco Bell and get lesser quality tacos for $1. 

But he acknowledged that some consumers who are financially struggling might not have the luxury to choose. 

“It's tough when you try to do things the right way and farm the right way and grow a better product, a healthier product,” Vasquez said of his company’s profitability. 

The Mexico and California avocado harvest seasons typically differ, creating a gap in the market. The Michoacán state in Mexico can produce avocados year-round because of its temperate climate, while California avocado season for Hass avocados — the most popular avocado variety — stretches just spring and summer. 

That’s not a problem for Vasquez, however. He said Rancho Vasquez grows six different varieties of avocados and can produce some combination of them year-round. 

Dean Kuipers, the owner of L.A. Homefarm — a neighborhood grocery store that sells locally grown produce — said the Mexico tariffs were not in place long enough to see any change in demand or cost for local avocados. Kuipers said his shop receives avocados from Schaner Family Farms, a 40-acre farm in Valley Center, California. 

“I don’t think there’s a downside [to tariffs] for local farmers because they need more markets,” Kuipers said of tariffs on Mexican avocados. 

That doesn’t mean he’s not concerned about the trade war. He agreed that big supermarkets, customers and Mexican farmers will feel the brunt of 25% tariffs. 

“I worry about their ability to market the stuff, the good growers, who are growing organically,” Kuipers said.

In April, Trump threatened tariffs and sanctions on Mexico to bargain for Rio Grande water for Texas farmers, to which Mexico agreed. Though tariffs on Mexican agricultural products remain in limbo, the threat of tariffs continues to bring uncertainty for farmers, sellers and consumers, as avocado demand continues to increase.